Retail 2025 and NRF 2026: Insights from Jill Dvorak

📍Washington DC, US

Retail entered 2025 with energy, complexity, and a level of turbulence that leaders across the industry are still trying to decode. In my conversation with Jill Dvorak, SVP of Content at the National Retail Federation, we explored how deeply this moment is shaped by policy uncertainty, shifting consumer behavior, and rapid technological acceleration. Jill spends her time at the intersection of retailers, policymakers, and global markets, which gives her a unique and honest perspective on what is really happening inside the industry. Her observations are grounded in real conversations with brands of every size, from the largest global retailers to the operators who wear twenty different hats inside ten million dollar businesses.

One of the biggest themes Jill highlighted is the impact of tariffs and policy volatility. Retailers are trying to plan in an environment where inputs can change from one week to the next. Nobody wants to pass rising costs on to customers, but many brands will eventually need to. At the same time, consumers are still spending, and holiday sales are projected to hit one trillion dollars. This creates a fascinating disconnect. There is pressure, but also resilience. Retailers know the consumer wants the holidays to happen, even during uncertainty. They are also navigating new regulations, such as California’s textile recycling law, which is forcing every brand in apparel and home to rethink materials, logistics, and end of life processes.